IMF Forecasts 4% Growth Rate for Ghana in 2025, Inflation to Hold at 12%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Ghana’s economy will grow by 4% in 2025, slightly below the government’s 4.4% target for the year. This projection was contained in the IMF’s Global Economic Outlook Report, released on the sidelines of the Annual World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings held in Washington DC, USA, on October 14, 2025.

According to the Fund, Ghana’s economic momentum is expected to strengthen further in 2026, with growth forecasted at 4.8%, signaling cautious optimism about the country’s medium-term prospects. The projection aligns closely with ongoing economic reforms under Ghana’s IMF-supported program, which aims to stabilize public finances and restore investor confidence after a turbulent economic period.

Despite the positive outlook, the 2025 growth rate projection remains modest compared to Ghana’s 6.3% GDP expansion in the second quarter of 2025, a period driven by the services sector’s 9.9% growth, which continued to anchor national output.

While the IMF report does not explicitly detail the rationale behind its growth forecast, sources close to the Fund told Joy Business that the figure reflects the institution’s cautious stance on Ghana’s fiscal consolidation path and structural reform progress. The IMF’s projection is also slightly lower than the World Bank’s 4.3% forecast contained in the October 2025 Africa Pulse Report, suggesting that the two institutions share a similar but measured optimism about Ghana’s post-crisis recovery.

Some economic analysts interpret the IMF’s position as a sign that the Fund expects Ghana’s growth to remain moderate in the short term, due largely to tightening fiscal policies, high debt service obligations, and slow private sector credit growth.

On the inflation front, the IMF anticipates that Ghana’s end-of-year inflation will settle at 12%, just above the government’s 11.9% target in the 2025 national budget. The projection comes at a time when inflation in Ghana has seen a remarkable decline — from 21.5% in September 2024 to 9.4% in September 2025 — reflecting the impact of strong monetary policy measures, exchange rate stability, and easing global commodity prices.

Interestingly, the IMF’s forecast contrasts with local data trends that suggest a continuing disinflationary path. Some Ghanaian economists project inflation could dip as low as 7% by October 2025, assuming sustained currency stability and favorable food supply conditions. However, the IMF and the World Bank, which projects 15.4% inflation for Ghana this year, appear more cautious — hinting at potential inflationary pressures linked to utility adjustments, wage increments, and fuel price fluctuations.

Despite differing opinions among global institutions, the Bank of Ghana has maintained confidence that inflation will remain within single digits by December 2025, driven by a stable cedi, declining food inflation, and disciplined fiscal spending under the IMF program.

The IMF’s medium-term outlook for Ghana also includes expectations of further disinflation in 2026, with inflation likely to fall to 9.4%, bringing the economy closer to the central bank’s long-term target band.

Speaking at a press briefing in Washington DC, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s Director of Research, noted that Ghana’s case typifies the broader situation among emerging and developing economies — showing progress but still vulnerable to global uncertainty.

> “Many developing countries are recovering, but they must strengthen their fiscal buffers to absorb future shocks,” Gourinchas emphasized, pointing to persistent risks from global supply disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and fluctuating commodity prices.

Gourinchas further remarked that the ongoing tariff tensions among major economies are unlikely to significantly affect developing countries like Ghana in the near term but cautioned against complacency in fiscal and structural management.

Globally, the IMF forecasts that world growth will ease from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025, reflecting tightening monetary conditions and weaker trade activity. Advanced economies are expected to grow modestly at 1.5%, while emerging and developing economies — including Ghana — will maintain a higher average of around 4%.

The Fund’s report places Ghana among the African economies showing resilience amid post-pandemic and debt-restructuring challenges. The country’s participation in the IMF Extended Credit Facility (ECF) program continues to play a crucial role in stabilizing macroeconomic indicators, with particular emphasis on debt sustainability, expenditure rationalization, and revenue mobilization.

Still, economists caution that growth in 2025 will depend heavily on the government’s ability to manage fiscal consolidation without stifling domestic demand. The private sector, which has faced high lending rates and limited access to credit, remains critical to sustaining job creation and inclusive growth.

Meanwhile, the IMF has urged Ghana and other developing nations to continue diversifying their economies, improve productivity in agriculture and manufacturing, and leverage digital transformation to enhance competitiveness in global markets.

As Ghana enters the final quarter of 2025, policymakers face the delicate task of balancing macroeconomic stability with the need for sustained growth and social protection. While the IMF’s 4% growth projection reflects confidence in Ghana’s recovery path, it also signals that the country must stay committed to reform implementation to achieve stronger, more inclusive growth in the years ahead.

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