A new survey by Africa Policy Lens (APL) has revealed that the race to become the National Democratic Congress’s flagbearer for the 2028 general election is essentially too close to call at the top, with NDC National Chairman Johnson Asiedu Nketia and Chief of Staff Julius Debrah separated by less than two percentage points in the assessments of party constituency executives.
The survey, conducted across all 276 constituencies nationwide among NDC faithful, shows Asiedu Nketia polling 31.9%, while Julius Debrah secured 30.1%, a margin the APL described as “near-even.” “Current support levels show a near-even division between the two leading candidates,” the report said. “Hon. Johnson Asiedu Nketia leads with 31.9%, while Hon. Julius Debrah follows closely with 30.1%. This narrow margin of less than two percentage points indicates that the race is not only competitive but also structurally balanced at the top.”
The APL report was released on Tuesday, April 21, 2026, and presents findings from a nationwide survey of constituency executives of the NDC, aimed at assessing current dynamics in the party’s 2028 flagbearer race. Data collection was conducted over a three-day period from April 17 to 19, 2026, using a structured survey instrument administered via bulk SMS, allowing respondents to access and complete the questionnaire remotely. A nationwide sampling approach was adopted, ensuring that all constituencies had an equal opportunity of representation in the study.
The immediate voting intention numbers mirror the general support figures almost exactly, which APL says points to a stable and defined preference landscape rather than one driven by soft or undecided sentiment. When respondents were asked who they would vote for if elections were held today, the same pattern emerged: Johnson Asiedu Nketia secured 32.7%, while Julius Debrah obtained 30.9%. “The consistency between general support and immediate voting intention suggests that voter preferences are firm and well-defined, with little evidence of volatility or swing,” the APL survey report indicated.
Haruna Iddrisu polled 17.9%, while Ato Forson secured 13.1% in the APL survey. Vice President Naana Jane Opoku-Agyemang followed with 3.6%, while Foreign Affairs Minister Samuel Okudzeto Ablakwa polled 1.0%. Other unnamed candidates collectively accounted for 2.5% of responses.
The APL findings differ notably from earlier polls by Global InfoAnalytics, which surveyed a broader pool of NDC members rather than specifically constituency executives. That firm’s latest tracking poll, conducted between March 31 and April 9, 2026, among nearly 10,400 delegates across all 16 regions, placed Asiedu Nketia at 29% and Ato Forson at 19%, with Haruna Iddrisu at 11% and Julius Debrah at 8%. The gap between the two surveys’ treatment of Debrah’s position has itself become a point of political debate, with some observers arguing that a survey of constituency executives, who form a critical layer of the party’s internal voting infrastructure, is particularly informative about the true state of the race.
The survey found that respondents’ choices were primarily shaped by leadership qualities rather than policy specifics. Experience and track record ranked highest at 66.1%, followed by personal integrity and honesty at 56.8%, ability to unite the party at 46.8%, grassroots appeal at 46.5%, charisma and public image at 43.9%, and policy proposals at 27.9%. “The electorate is clearly prioritising credibility, trust, and party cohesion over policy articulation,” the APL report noted.
This emphasis on experience and unity plays directly into the narrative each leading candidate is building. Asiedu Nketia, who has been a fixture of NDC politics for decades and currently serves as national chairman, brings an unmatched organisational track record and grassroots network accumulated over several electoral cycles. Julius Debrah, serving in the influential role of Chief of Staff in the Mahama presidency, has been visible in high-profile policy settings including the Kwahu Business Forum, which President Mahama personally credited him for shaping.
APL concluded that “the NDC flagbearer race remains highly competitive but inconclusive. While Johnson Asiedu Nketia and Julius Debrah clearly lead the field, the absence of a commanding margin means the contest is still open and contestable. The eventual outcome will depend not simply on maintaining current support levels but also on candidates’ ability to broaden their appeal, consolidate broader backing, and align with the key leadership qualities valued by voters. Until then, the race should be understood as a balanced contest at the top, without a decisive frontrunner.”
The report concluded that both candidates maintain stable constituencies but have so far failed to expand significantly beyond them. “This reinforces the conclusion that no candidate currently commands a winning majority,” it added.
The NDC is expected to hold internal elections and eventually a presidential primary, likely in 2027, to choose who will lead the party into the 2028 general election. With both the Global InfoAnalytics and APL surveys pointing to a crowded and fluid field, the real contest is still very much in its early stages, and the positions of key undeclared figures could yet reshape the race entirely before formal processes begin.
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