Rising costs and potential disruptions in global fertilizer trade, triggered by the ongoing war involving Iran and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, are mounting serious concerns for Africa’s already fragile food security. Natural gas, a critical input for fertilizer production, has become significantly more expensive since the conflict intensified on February 28, pushing fertilizer prices higher and threatening supply chains that many African countries depend on.
The fertilizer trade is highly vulnerable to events in the Middle East because the region is a major producer and exporter of both energy and fertilizer raw materials. Any prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway carrying a large share of global oil and related commodities, quickly ripples through agricultural input markets worldwide, with particularly severe consequences for import-dependent regions like sub-Saharan Africa.
Why Fertilizer Trade Disruptions Matter
Africa already has one of the lowest rates of fertilizer use in the world, limiting crop yields and making the continent highly susceptible to external shocks. Countries such as Sudan, Somalia, Tanzania, and Mozambique rely heavily on imported fertilizers, many of which transit through or are linked to Middle Eastern supply routes. When fertilizer trade is disrupted or prices spike, farmers face immediate choices: pay more, reduce application rates, or skip fertilization altogether, all of which lead to lower harvests.
An economist warned of a potential “cascading crisis,” noting that higher energy costs combined with supply constraints make fertilizers unaffordable for vulnerable farming communities. In Sudan, for example, farmers in Port Sudan are already expressing anxiety about reduced planting and smaller future harvests. Lower fertilizer application directly translates into reduced food production, higher food prices, and increased risk of hunger and malnutrition across the region.
The situation is especially critical because Africa’s population continues to grow rapidly while climate variability already challenges rain-fed agriculture. Any further strain on fertilizer trade exacerbates existing vulnerabilities, potentially reversing recent gains in food availability and pushing more households into food insecurity.
Fertilizer Trade Impact on Businesses
Agricultural businesses, from smallholder farmers and input suppliers to large-scale processors and exporters, are directly affected by disruptions in fertilizer trade. Higher fertilizer prices squeeze profit margins for farmers, who may cut back on usage and accept lower yields, reducing the volume of crops available for sale, processing, or export. This creates a domino effect: agribusinesses face higher raw material costs or shortages, food processors experience reduced throughput, and exporters struggle to meet international demand.
Input suppliers and fertilizer distributors may see short-term revenue gains from price increases, but sustained high costs risk lower overall demand as farmers scale back. Logistics companies involved in importing and distributing fertilizers also face uncertainty, with potential delays and higher insurance or freight costs due to Red Sea and Hormuz-related risks.
In the longer term, persistent problems in fertilizer trade could discourage investment in African agriculture, slowing the development of local fertilizer production capacity and modern farming practices that many agribusinesses are trying to promote.
How Fertilizer Trade Disruptions Affect Households
For African households, especially in rural and low-income urban areas, disruptions in fertilizer trade translate into higher food prices and greater risk of hunger. Reduced fertilizer use leads to smaller harvests of staples like maize, rice, sorghum, and vegetables, tightening domestic supply and driving up market prices. Families already spending a large portion of their income on food face even greater pressure, often having to cut back on quantity or quality of meals.
In countries like Sudan, where farmers are already struggling, the prospect of lower yields means less food available locally and greater reliance on expensive imports or food aid. This can lead to malnutrition, particularly among children, and increased economic hardship as households divert money from education, healthcare, or savings to cover basic food needs.
Urban households are not spared: higher food prices erode purchasing power and can spark broader inflationary pressures. In extreme cases, sustained food shortages linked to fertilizer trade problems can trigger social unrest or increased migration from rural areas.
The Broader Implications and Possible Responses
The current crisis in fertilizer trade highlights Africa’s dangerous dependence on imported agricultural inputs and the need for greater self-reliance. Long-term solutions include investing in local fertilizer production (using available phosphate and natural gas resources), promoting precision farming and organic alternatives, and building strategic fertilizer reserves. Governments and development partners must also accelerate support for smallholder farmers through subsidies, credit, and extension services to mitigate immediate impacts.
While the Iran war and resulting tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are the immediate triggers, the underlying issue is structural vulnerability in Africa’s agricultural system. Addressing fertilizer trade disruptions effectively requires both short-term emergency measures to secure supplies and long-term strategies to boost domestic production and resilience.
In conclusion, the mounting pressure on fertilizer trade due to Middle East conflict is far more than a commodity issue, it is a direct threat to food security across Africa. Left unaddressed, it will hurt farm businesses through lower yields and higher costs, while pushing vulnerable households deeper into hunger and poverty. Swift, coordinated action to stabilise supplies and invest in local agricultural capacity is essential to protect both economic livelihoods and human well-being on the continent.