As Ghana prepares for the upcoming Ayawaso East by-election, a new poll released by Global InfoAnalytics suggests that the National Democratic Congress candidate, Honorable Baba Jamal, is poised to secure a commanding victory with approximately 75 percent of valid votes, significantly outperforming his closest rival and consolidating the party’s historical strength in the constituency. The survey, carried out between 28th February and 1st March 2026, sampled 972 registered voters and was conducted at a 95 percent confidence level with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.05 percent.
According to the poll findings, Baba Jamal’s projected 75 percent share represents a slight improvement compared to the 2024 parliamentary elections, when the then NDC Member of Parliament, Honorable Naser Toure, secured nearly 71 percent of the votes. In that election, the New Patriotic Party candidate, Zak Rahman, obtained 29 percent. The current projection therefore suggests that the NDC’s support base in Ayawaso East remains strong and could even expand in the by-election.
The Ayawaso East constituency has traditionally been considered a stronghold of the NDC, with the party consistently performing well in parliamentary contests. The by-election presents an opportunity for the party to reaffirm its dominance in the area. The projected outcome also signals continuity in voter preference, with a significant majority of respondents indicating their intention to back the NDC candidate.
For the New Patriotic Party, the poll projects a weaker showing compared to its 2024 performance. The NPP’s candidate in the by-election, Baba Ali, is predicted to secure about 21 percent of the vote. This represents a drop of nearly eight percentage points compared to the 29 percent obtained by Zak Rahman in the last parliamentary election. The anticipated decline suggests that the NPP may struggle to expand its appeal in a constituency that has historically leaned toward the opposition.
The poll also included projections for independent candidate Umaru Sanda Muhammed, who defected from the ruling NDC to contest the seat independently. He is forecast to secure about 3 percent of the votes. While this share is relatively small, it reflects some level of support for his candidacy despite the dominance of the two major political parties in the constituency.
The survey’s sample size of 972 voters provides a substantial data base for statistical inference. Conducted with a 95 percent confidence level and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.05 percent, the poll falls within accepted standards for electoral opinion research. This means that if the same survey were repeated multiple times under similar conditions, the results would fall within the stated margin of error in 95 out of 100 cases.
The by-election campaign has drawn attention from political observers across Ghana, as it offers insight into voter sentiment ahead of future national contests. Political parties have intensified their outreach efforts in the constituency, engaging with residents through rallies, community visits and targeted messaging. The NDC has emphasised continuity and representation, while the NPP has sought to mobilise its base and improve its standing despite the challenging projections.
If the poll results are reflected in the final vote count, Baba Jamal would secure a decisive mandate, reinforcing the NDC’s position in Ayawaso East. A 75 percent victory margin would not only exceed the party’s 2024 parliamentary performance in the constituency but also demonstrate sustained grassroots support.
The by-election outcome will ultimately depend on voter turnout and election day dynamics. However, the Global InfoAnalytics poll indicates a clear advantage for the NDC candidate, with a wide margin separating him from his competitors. As election day approaches, all eyes will be on Ayawaso East to see whether the projected landslide materialises at the ballot box.
Baba Jamal Mohamed wins Ayawaso East NDC parliamentary primary