Fuel price increase projected for March 2026: petrol up 3.59%, diesel up 1.52%, LPG down 1.57%. COPEC warns of global crude and forex impacts, here’s how businesses and households will feel the pinch.
Ghanaian motorists and households are facing another round of higher costs at the pump as the first pricing window of March 2026 approaches. The Chamber of Petroleum Consumers (COPEC) has forecast a fuel price increase, with petrol expected to rise by 3.59% and diesel by 1.52%, even as liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) offers modest relief with a projected 1.57% decline.
What’s Driving the Fuel Price Increase
The fuel price increase stems primarily from international market dynamics. Global crude oil rose modestly by 1.25%, moving from US$70.90 to US$71.79 per barrel. More significantly, international Free On Board (FOB) prices for refined products climbed sharply, petrol jumped 5.03% from US$652.64/MT to US$685.27/MT, while diesel increased 2.29% from US$695.94/MT to US$711.86/MT. Although the cedi appreciated slightly by 0.24% against the dollar (closing around GHS11.07 to the dollar), this gain was insufficient to offset the imported cost pressures.
Petrol will bear the brunt of the fuel price increase. COPEC projects retail prices climbing to a range of GHS11.80 to GHS13.00 per litre (within ±5% of their estimate). This upward adjustment reflects the combined effect of higher FOB costs and only partial protection from the stronger cedi.
For diesel, the fuel price increase is milder but still noticeable, with expected retail prices between GHS12.73 and GHS14.00 per litre. Commercial transport operators, who rely heavily on diesel, will see incremental but cumulative strain on operating margins.
LPG stands out as the exception. International FOB prices fell 1.5%, and with the cedi’s minor gain, retail prices are forecast to drop to between GHS11.48 and GHS12.69 per kg, a small but welcome breather for households using gas for cooking.
How Fuel Price Increase Affects Businesses
Businesses across sectors feel the fuel price increase through higher logistics and production costs. Transport and haulage companies face immediate margin compression as diesel costs rise; many will pass these on via increased freight charges. This pushes up prices for goods moved by road, everything from farm produce to manufactured items, contributing to broader inflationary pressure.
Small and medium enterprises, especially those in retail, distribution, and services, operate on thin margins. A sustained fuel price increase erodes profitability, forces price hikes, or compels cutbacks in operations or staff. Manufacturers using diesel generators to bridge power gaps will see elevated energy expenses, squeezing competitiveness in an already challenging environment.
Fuel Price Increase Hits Households Where It Hurts
For ordinary households, the fuel price increase translates to tighter budgets. Commuters spending on petrol or trotro fares will pay more for daily travel to work, school, or markets. In rural and peri-urban areas, where public transport is limited, personal vehicle owners face steeper running costs that eat into disposable income.
Cooking with LPG provides slight relief, but most households still rely on multiple fuels. Overall living costs rise as transport-driven inflation ripples through food and essential goods. Families already grappling with post-crisis economic recovery may cut non-essential spending, slowing retail activity and local commerce.
Why This Fuel Price Increase Matters Now
Ghana remains highly exposed to global oil market volatility despite recent macroeconomic gains. Even modest crude price movements, amplified by refined product costs, quickly transmit to consumers because of heavy reliance on imports. The cedi’s appreciation offers only limited insulation, underscoring the need for stronger domestic buffers, alternative energy diversification, and prudent fiscal policies to dampen such shocks.
COPEC has appealed to Oil Marketing Companies to absorb some pressure and avoid full pass-through, but market realities make restraint difficult. Repeated fuel price increase cycles erode consumer confidence, fuel perceptions of economic instability, and complicate efforts to sustain inflation control.
This latest fuel price increase serves as a reminder that global commodity swings continue to dictate domestic realities. Without accelerated progress on local refining, renewable energy adoption, or strategic petroleum reserves, Ghanaian businesses and households will remain vulnerable to external price shocks. For now, March brings another test of resilience, one more increment at the pump that quietly tightens belts across the economy.
AngloGold Ashanti reports strong earnings surge amid record prices and rising reserves