The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that rising food prices driven by conflict, extreme weather and other economic shocks are creating difficult policy choices for governments, particularly in countries where low-income households spend a large share of their earnings on food.
In its latest analysis of food assistance policies, the Fund said millions of people face renewed food-security risks from two major developments, the possibility of a stronger El Niño weather pattern and the potential escalation of conflict in the Middle East, which could disrupt fertilizer and energy supplies. Editorial Ethics & Independence
Both developments could increase pressure on agricultural production and food prices.
While adverse weather can reduce harvests and tighten food supplies, disruptions to fertilizer and energy markets can raise farmers’ operating costs, potentially affecting crop yields, agricultural incomes and the prices consumers pay.
The IMF said governments often face immediate pressure to intervene when food becomes less affordable.
However, choosing the wrong form of assistance could waste limited public resources while failing to provide adequate support to the households most affected.
In many countries, food accounts for more than half of household expenditure, leaving families with limited room to absorb sudden increases in prices without cutting spending on other essential needs, including healthcare and education.
The Fund therefore urged policymakers to assess the nature of a food crisis before deciding whether to subsidize prices, distribute food directly or provide vouchers to vulnerable households.
Past Crises Highlight the Risks
The IMF noted that food shocks are a recurring challenge for policymakers in vulnerable countries, with the effects often extending beyond the immediate period of rising prices.
It cited the 2015–2016 El Niño event, which affected food security for approximately 60 million people worldwide. Editorial Standards
El Niño is a climate pattern associated with warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, which can alter rainfall and temperature patterns in different parts of the world.
The Fund also referred to the global food-price increases following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
According to its analysis, the price shock pushed about 71 million people into poverty worldwide within three months.
More recently, the IMF said the outbreak of war in the Middle East earlier in 2026 coincided with sharp increases in the prices of some fertilizers, which rose by almost 50 per cent before subsequently normalising.
Although prices later eased, the increase occurred during the planting season in several countries.
Farmers who purchased inputs at higher prices could continue to experience the effects through production costs, harvest outcomes and agricultural incomes.
These examples illustrate how conflict and weather-related shocks can affect food security through different channels, sometimes with consequences that persist after the initial disruption.