Fuel prices expected to drop marginally across Ghana – Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies

Fuel consumers across Ghana can expect some relief at the pumps this week, as prices of petrol, diesel, and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) are projected to decline slightly in the second pricing window of October 2025. According to the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs), prices of petrol, diesel, and LPG are expected to decrease by between 2.04% to 4.15%, 2.08% to 4.10%, and 2.49% to 4.46% respectively.

The Chamber attributes the anticipated drop to a combination of factors, including stability in the Ghana cedi against the U.S. dollar, improved global supply conditions, and a marginal decline in international crude oil prices over the past two weeks. The announcement comes as consumers continue to grapple with high living costs and fluctuating fuel prices, which have ripple effects on transportation, goods, and services across the country.

In a statement issued by the Chamber’s Research and Policy Unit, it noted that international benchmark prices for refined petroleum products had declined slightly, reflecting a reduction in demand projections and improved inventory levels in major oil-consuming economies. Brent crude oil, which averaged around $87 per barrel in the previous window, traded between $83 and $85 during the current pricing period, a development that has eased some pressure on the local petroleum market.

“Given the current global market dynamics and relative cedi stability, OMCs are expected to adjust their pump prices downward for the second pricing window of October. Consumers should see modest reductions across all major petroleum products,” the statement said.

Petrol is expected to sell between GH¢13.10 and GH¢13.50 per litre, down from the previous average of GH¢13.70, while diesel prices are projected to range between GH¢13.20 and GH¢13.60 per litre. LPG prices are also anticipated to drop, offering slight relief for households and commercial users who rely heavily on gas for cooking and small-scale production.

Energy analysts have welcomed the projection, though they caution that the reductions are not likely to be significant enough to cause a major shift in transportation fares or commodity prices. The Chief Executive Officer of the Institute for Energy Security (IES), Nana Amoasi VII, told reporters that while the drop is positive, price stability over time remains the key challenge.

“We’re seeing some marginal relief this window, but what’s important is consistency. Frequent fluctuations, whether up or down, make it difficult for consumers and businesses to plan effectively,” he noted. “Sustained fuel price stability requires policy direction, effective stock management, and stronger forex performance.”

The IES further emphasized the need for government intervention in addressing structural inefficiencies within Ghana’s petroleum downstream sector, including delays in the implementation of the cylinder recirculation model for LPG and inadequate strategic fuel reserves. These, it said, contribute to recurring volatility and consumer vulnerability during global market shocks.

The current price trend marks a continuation of slight downward adjustments observed since late September, when global crude oil prices began softening amid concerns over demand in China and Europe. However, local price changes depend not only on global market movements but also on exchange rate fluctuations, taxes, and logistics costs borne by OMCs.

Some consumers in Accra expressed mixed feelings over the projected reductions. Commercial drivers said while any decrease is welcome, the impact must be significant enough to offset operational costs. “A few pesewas difference doesn’t change much. If the government really wants to help, they should look at the taxes on fuel,” one driver at the Kwame Nkrumah Circle lorry station said.

Currently, over 40% of the retail price of fuel in Ghana is made up of taxes, levies, and margins, a situation consumer advocates say limits the full transmission of international price declines to end users. The Chamber of Petroleum Consumers (COPEC) has repeatedly called for a review of these levies, arguing that government’s revenue interest often overrides the welfare of consumers.

Meanwhile, the National Petroleum Authority (NPA) has assured the public that it will continue monitoring pricing activities within the deregulated market to ensure fairness and transparency among petroleum service providers. The Authority also reiterated its commitment to protecting consumers from exploitative pricing and ensuring compliance with national standards.

While this round of price reductions is expected to bring modest relief, industry players warn that volatility in the global oil market remains a constant risk, particularly as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and supply cuts by OPEC+ countries continue to influence oil prices worldwide.

For now, consumers can look forward to slightly lower fuel costs heading into the second half of October, a welcome respite amid persistent economic pressures. Whether these reductions will be sustained into November, however, will depend largely on international oil price trends and the performance of the cedi in the weeks ahead.

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