Global food supplies could face severe disruption if the ongoing war involving Iran turns into a prolonged conflict, according to the chief executive of Yara International, one of the world’s largest producers of crop nutrients.
The warning was issued by Yara’s chief executive Svein Tore Holsether, who said the conflict could become “catastrophic” for global agriculture if key supply routes for fertiliser and energy remain disrupted for an extended period. He urged world leaders to consider the potential humanitarian consequences, particularly in poorer countries already struggling with rising food prices and economic pressures.
Modern agriculture depends heavily on fertilisers such as urea and ammonia, which are used to boost crop yields for staple foods including wheat, maize and rice. Without adequate fertiliser supplies, crop production can fall dramatically, threatening global food availability and pushing prices higher for consumers.
The conflict has already caused sharp volatility in fertiliser markets. Prices for urea, one of the most widely used nitrogen fertilisers, have surged from about 487 dollars per tonne to roughly 700 dollars in a matter of weeks as supply disruptions spread through global markets.
Industry analysts warn that the crisis is partly linked to disruptions in the Gulf region, which plays a critical role in the production and export of fertiliser components. Countries in the region account for roughly a third of the world’s urea exports and nearly a quarter of global ammonia supplies, making them central to the global agricultural supply chain.
A major concern is the security of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important maritime trade corridors. The narrow waterway handles a significant portion of global oil, natural gas and fertiliser shipments. If the strait were closed for an extended period, shipping disruptions could prevent fertilisers and the natural gas used to produce them from reaching global markets. The Gulf region’s fertiliser industry relies heavily on natural gas to manufacture ammonia and other nitrogen based nutrients essential for farming.
Experts say that disruptions to these flows could cascade through the entire agricultural system. Even modest reductions in fertiliser use can significantly reduce crop yields, meaning farmers may produce less food during upcoming harvest seasons.
Holsether warned that the consequences would likely be felt most acutely in developing countries where farmers already face limited access to fertiliser due to high prices and financial constraints. In such markets, any additional price increase could force farmers to reduce fertiliser use, leading to smaller harvests and worsening food insecurity.
The chief executive also highlighted a growing risk that wealthier regions may outcompete poorer countries for limited fertiliser supplies. Europe and other advanced economies have greater purchasing power, allowing them to secure shipments even when global supplies tighten. This dynamic could leave lower income nations struggling to obtain essential agricultural inputs.
International organisations are also monitoring the situation closely. The World Food Programme has warned that rising food and fuel costs linked to geopolitical conflicts could worsen hunger levels globally, particularly in vulnerable regions such as parts of Africa and the Middle East.
Beyond fertilisers, the conflict is also driving up energy prices, which play a major role in food production and distribution. Natural gas is a key input in fertiliser manufacturing, while oil prices influence transportation costs across global food supply chains.
Energy market disruptions have already intensified as shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz has declined sharply amid security threats and attacks on commercial vessels. Analysts say the region normally handles around 20 percent of global oil shipments and a large share of liquefied natural gas exports, making any disruption there significant for global markets.
Agricultural economists warn that if the war continues for months rather than weeks, the effects could begin to appear in crop production cycles around the world. Farmers typically purchase fertiliser ahead of planting seasons, and delays or shortages during this period can significantly affect harvest outcomes later in the year.
For countries already grappling with inflation and food security challenges, the combination of higher fertiliser prices, energy costs and disrupted trade routes could push millions more people into hunger.
Holsether said global leaders must act quickly to stabilise supply chains and ensure that agricultural inputs continue to reach farmers worldwide. Failure to do so, he warned, could trigger a chain reaction across global food systems that would be difficult to reverse.
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