Global markets in 2026 are entering a phase where geopolitical tensions, policy shifts and structural economic changes are poised to influence commodity prices, investment flows and investor behaviour, according to insights from the Minerals Income and Investment Fund (MIIF). The Fund’s 2025 Economic & Market Overview and Strategic Outlook highlights how unresolved global risk factors will continue to shape capital allocation and price dynamics across key sectors, with important implications for Ghana’s commodity-dependent economy.
MIIF identifies geopolitical risk as one of the most significant determinants of market outcomes this year. These risks including lingering uncertainty in key conflict zones, trade frictions and diplomatic tensions were prominent in 2025 and are expected to remain central in 2026. Last year, sharp price movements were observed across energy and precious metals markets as geopolitical events interacted with underlying market conditions, causing divergence in performance across commodity classes. The MIIF report emphasises that such shocks no longer influence prices in a linear fashion but rather through complex interactions with structural supply and demand factors.
Commodities: Winners and laggards in a risk-driven landscape
Data from 2025 shows how geopolitical fears can propel investor decisions. Gold, traditionally regarded as a safe-haven asset during periods of risk and uncertainty, surged by nearly 72 per cent over the year. This remarkable rise was supported by increased safe-haven demand from investors, consistent central bank purchases, and expectations of monetary policy accommodation in the face of slowing growth and conflict-related risk. Silver also posted strong gains, especially in the fourth quarter when climbing more than 50 per cent, thanks in part to robust industrial demand linked to solar panel production and electronics manufacturing.
In contrast, not all commodities exhibited the same upward momentum. Brent crude oil prices declined, falling by more than 9 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025, even as geopolitical risk remained elevated. Meanwhile, agricultural and bulk commodities such as cocoa and bauxite softened, reflecting easing supply constraints and weaker processing demand in downstream industries. MIIF emphasises these divergent trends to illustrate how geopolitical developments can amplify underlying structural forces such as changes in demand and supply conditions rather than uniformly lifting or depressing prices across all asset classes.
The dynamic aligns with broader market intelligence showing that geopolitical uncertainty reinforces risk premiums embedded in commodity prices. Ongoing tensions involving major producing regions have continued to influence precious metals demand and contribute to volatility in energy markets, even as inventory levels and consumption patterns shape price outcomes.
Policy, capital flows and investment decisions
MIIF’s outlook emphasises that geopolitics will not only affect prices but also capital flows and investment decisions. Central banks around the world continued to accumulate gold reserves as a hedge against geopolitical and currency risks, reflecting a broader strategy to protect national balance sheets and preserve purchasing power in an uncertain environment. Meanwhile, global mining and energy-transition investments have increasingly favoured jurisdictions perceived as politically stable and strategically important to supply chains for critical minerals and renewable energy components.
Emerging market risk perceptions are also shaping foreign direct investment patterns. The combination of geopolitical tensions, rising trade barriers and supply-chain restructuring is prompting investors to become more cautious and selective. Capital flows in 2026 are expected to concentrate in markets with strong policy incentives or regional advantages, while countries more exposed to geopolitical uncertainty may experience subdued investment inflows. Investors are also showing growing interest in sectors linked to emerging technologies, digital infrastructure and the energy transition, reflecting a long-term shift toward future-focused industries despite near-term volatility.
Implications for Ghana and the extractive sector
For Ghana, the MIIF outlook highlights the continued centrality of gold as the anchor of the mining and extractive economy. Gold outperformed other commodities in Ghana’s export portfolio in 2025. MIIF data show that gold prices rose from US$3,858.96 per ounce at the end of the third quarter of 2025 to US$4,319.37 per ounce by year-end, representing an 11.9 per cent quarterly increase and supporting steady capital inflows even as other commodity markets experienced corrections.
This divergence reinforced gold’s role as a stabilising revenue source for the country, particularly as oil, cocoa and bauxite markets recorded weaker performance. However, MIIF cautions that turning favourable price movements into sustainable economic growth and diversification remains a key challenge. The Fund stresses the importance of strategic investments in value addition, downstream processing and operational efficiency to reduce over-reliance on raw commodity exports.
At the corporate level, notable progress was recorded in precious metals and strategic mineral development during the latter part of 2025. Several mining firms improved production efficiency, enhanced recovery rates and strengthened balance sheets to support future expansion. In the lithium sector, companies continued to navigate pricing pressures and regulatory adjustments, highlighting the uneven pace of growth across commodities linked to the global energy transition.
Outlook for global markets in 2026
As developments such as OPEC production decisions, diplomatic engagements in conflict-affected regions and shifts in global trade policy unfold, these factors are expected to remain critical drivers of commodity markets and capital flows throughout 2026. Investors and policymakers are likely to maintain a dual focus on geopolitical developments and structural economic fundamentals when shaping investment strategies, managing risk and allocating capital.
Overall, the interaction between geopolitical tensions and broader macroeconomic forces is set to define market conditions in 2026. For Ghana and other commodity-dependent economies, the priority will be to harness favourable segments of commodity performance while managing exposure to volatility, ensuring long-term resilience through informed policy choices and strategic investment planning.