PwC tax expert warns Ghana is spending more than ever in 2026 budget

A senior tax expert from PwC has issued a cautionary assessment of Ghana’s 2026 national budget, warning that planned government spending could be at historically high levels and pose significant fiscal sustainability risks. The expert’s analysis suggests that while many of the budget proposals are aimed at growth and social investment there is growing concern about debt burden and long term economic stability if expenditure outpaces revenue.

According to the PwC specialist, multiple line items in the budget reflect aggressive expansion: more infrastructure projects increased public service cost and enhanced social funding. While these investments are popular and politically compelling the cost implication is substantial and cannot be ignored. The expert emphasises that without matching revenue increases or efficiency gains the country may be exposing itself to risk.

He pointed out that tax revenue projections in the budget appear optimistic and rely heavily on improved compliance and growth in economic activity. While some of this may be achievable the PwC analysis warns that external factors like global inflation commodity fluctuation and currency instability could undermine revenue assumptions. If revenues fall short the gap would likely be financed through more borrowing or creative accounting which could weaken fiscal health.

To mitigate these challenges the expert recommends reforms across tax administration spending discipline and public investment strategy. On taxation he argues for broader tax base expansion better enforcement and modernization of the tax system to increase collection without overburdening citizens. On expenditure he suggests rigorous cost benefit assessment of public projects prioritization of high impact investments and stronger mechanisms to evaluate value for money.

Another point in his analysis is the need for contingency planning. He advises government to include plausible downside scenarios in its budget framework such as lower revenue or slower growth and provide clear strategies for austerity measures if needed. He warns that contingency plans are not optional but essential to prepare for economic uncertainties.

Public debt is central to his concern. The tax expert highlights that unless spending is controlled or matched by real revenue gains debt servicing could swallow a substantial portion of future budgets. He cautions that unchecked borrowing could undermine economic sovereignty and constrain future governments’ ability to fund critical sectors.

He also calls for transparency and accountability. He urges the government to publicly report cash flow updates and regularly disclose performance on key fiscal metrics. By doing so he argues that citizens and investors will have confidence in the sustainability of public finances.

Civil society actors have welcomed his observations, saying that independent analysis is vital for democratic fiscal debate. Many agree with his call for a balanced approach that supports growth but also respects long-term financial health. They have urged the government to take his warning seriously and integrate expert feedback into budget planning.

In response to the analysis the Ministry of Finance has stated that it recognizes the risks but remains confident in its revenue and growth strategy. The ministry noted that provisions for borrowing have been carefully calibrated and that spending is targeted in sectors that will yield economic returns.

As debate on the 2026 budget intensifies this PwC expert’s warning is likely to fuel calls for prudence. Citizens, tax payers and policy makers will closely monitor how the government implements budget measures, whether it adopts reform oriented policies and how it navigates the tension between growth ambition and fiscal responsibility.