Chocolate lovers in the UK are paying record prices as food inflation surged to a 15-month high in May, driven largely by a sharp rise in chocolate costs. The latest data from the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) reveals a 17.7% increase in chocolate prices compared to last year — the steepest annual rise since records began in 2016.
Cocoa Crisis in Ghana and Ivory Coast Fuels Global Price Surge
The spike is primarily linked to a supply shortage from cocoa-producing giants Ghana and Ivory Coast, which together account for more than half of the world’s cocoa. Adverse weather conditions, crop disease, and alleged mismanagement in these regions have severely impacted harvests.
“These two countries produce well over half of all the cocoa in the world,” said Jonathan Parkman, head of agriculture at commodities broker Marex. “There is little chance of a fall in chocolate prices this side of Christmas.”
Beyond weather challenges, Parkman pointed to structural issues: “The problems also include long-term government mismanagement of the cocoa sector and a surge in disease.”
UK Food Inflation Rises as Retailers Feel the Pinch
According to the ONS, food prices rose 4.4% in May, marking the third consecutive monthly increase. The trend coincides with tax and wage changes implemented in April — including a rise in the minimum wage and increased employer National Insurance contributions — which analysts believe are being passed on to consumers.
“Perhaps this provides a tentative sign that firms are passing on more of April’s rise in National Insurance Contributions in their selling prices,” said Ruth Gregory, deputy chief economist at Capital Economics.
While the UK’s overall inflation rate remained at 3.4%, its highest in over a year, consumers are feeling the strain. Zayna Omer, who runs Harbour Grind coffee stand in Whitstable, noted a shift in customer behaviour: “Young families, you do notice with them they will price check first or compare prices along the strip, and then come back.”
She added, “I’d go out of business if I increase my prices.”
Retailers and businesses have echoed this concern. John Roberts, CEO of AO World, stated, “If you put taxes on businesses and on employment, that isn’t a growth engine — it’s as simple as that.”
The British Retail Consortium warned that retailers had flagged these cost burdens months ago. “Since October, retailers have warned that the costs from the Chancellor’s Budget could not be fully absorbed and would inevitably lead to higher prices for shoppers,” said Kris Hamer, the Consortium’s director of insight.
With inflation already straining households and chocolate prices soaring ahead of the festive season, experts caution that further economic shocks — including potential oil price hikes due to tensions in the Strait of Hormuz — could worsen the cost-of-living crisis.
Read Also: Ghana’s Cocoa Export Earnings Triple to $1.8 Billion in Early 2025 — Bank of Ghana