Ghana’s upstream petroleum sector is facing renewed scrutiny after the Public Interest and Accountability Committee reported that crude oil production has now declined for a sixth consecutive year, dropping sharply from a peak of 71.44 million barrels in 2019 to 37.3 million barrels in 2025.
The latest figures reinforce a troubling trend that has steadily eroded one of the country’s most critical revenue streams, raising fresh concerns about long term sustainability, investment appetite, and fiscal stability.
Data from PIAC and related industry reports show that the decline is not a sudden shock but a continuation of a multi year downward trajectory. Production fell from 71.44 million barrels in 2019 to about 48.25 million barrels by 2023 and 2024, before dropping further in 2025, reflecting both structural and operational weaknesses in the sector.
At the heart of the decline are ageing oil fields, limited new discoveries, and persistent operational disruptions. Ghana’s three main producing fields, Jubilee, TEN, and Sankofa Gye Nyame, have all recorded reduced output as reservoirs mature and technical challenges persist. In the first half of 2025 alone, production dropped by nearly 26 percent year on year, driven by shutdowns, maintenance issues, and natural depletion.
The Jubilee Field, the country’s flagship asset, has been particularly affected, recording the steepest production drop due to both planned maintenance and structural decline. Meanwhile, the TEN and Sankofa fields have also faced reduced output linked to technical constraints and reservoir performance challenges.
Beyond technical issues, the decline points to a deeper investment problem. Ghana has not signed a new petroleum agreement in years, and exploration activity has slowed significantly. Industry observers warn that without fresh discoveries or enhanced recovery investments, output will continue to fall, regardless of short term operational fixes.
The economic implications are immediate and serious. Oil revenues, which form a meaningful portion of government income, are becoming increasingly vulnerable. PIAC has consistently warned that declining production could widen fiscal deficits, particularly in periods of weak global oil prices.
Even in years where revenue has held up due to favourable prices, the underlying production weakness remains a structural risk. A sector that once anchored expectations of sustained growth is now showing signs of contraction, with implications for public spending, currency stability, and investor confidence.
There is also a governance dimension that cannot be ignored. Previous PIAC reports have flagged issues ranging from unpaid petroleum revenues to weak enforcement of financial obligations within the sector. These gaps compound the production challenge, raising questions about whether Ghana is maximising the value of what remains of its oil output.
For policymakers, the situation presents a narrowing window of opportunity. The country must decide whether to reinvigorate its upstream sector through new exploration, improved fiscal terms, and targeted investment or accelerate diversification away from oil dependence altogether.
The global energy transition adds further urgency. As capital increasingly shifts toward renewable energy, attracting investment into fossil fuel projects is becoming more difficult. This means Ghana’s declining production is not just a local issue but part of a broader structural shift in global energy markets.
At a time when energy revenues are still needed to support development priorities, the country finds itself balancing between a declining legacy sector and an uncertain transition.
The warning from PIAC is clear. Without decisive intervention, Ghana’s oil sector will continue to shrink, not gradually but structurally. And when production declines become entrenched, recovery is not guaranteed. It becomes a question not of when output will rebound, but whether it ever will.